Hey there, bargain hunter.
Here is the situation in about 10 seconds: Palantir just posted its fastest revenue growth ever as a public company, raised full-year guidance to about 71% growth, sits on roughly $8 billion in cash and short-term investments, and the stock is still down roughly 38% from its 52-week high near $207.
That gap is worth understanding.
What Happened
Q1 2026 numbers from the company’s SEC filings and shareholder materials:
- Revenue: $1.633 billion, up 85% year-over-year
- U.S. commercial revenue: $595 million, up 133% year-over-year
- U.S. government revenue: $687 million, up 84% year-over-year
- GAAP net income: $871 million, 53% margin
- Adjusted free cash flow: $925 million, 57% margin
- Rule of 40 score: 145%
- Total contract value bookings: $2.41 billion, up 61% year-over-year
- Remaining performance obligations (RPO): $4.5 billion
Full-year 2026 guidance was raised to $7.650 to $7.662 billion. That implies roughly 71% revenue growth for the full year. U.S. commercial revenue guidance alone was raised to at least $3.224 billion, which would represent at least 120% growth year-over-year. Q2 2026 guidance calls for $1.797 to $1.801 billion in revenue.
The Bear in the Room
Michael Burry is still short. That is not a footnote. His bet against Palantir, first disclosed through put options in 2025 13F filings, has become one of the most watched positions in the market.
What we can verify publicly is limited: 13F filings can show that a manager held put options, but they do not disclose strike prices or exact trade rationales. I could not verify the specific June 2, 2026 “sand castle” quote, the “16 times intrinsic value” claim, the specific strike prices ($50 June 2027 and $100 December 2026), or the claim that he has publicly said Palantir is worth less than $50 per share, from a credible primary source.
The stock sits around $129 right now. The 52-week range is roughly $106 to $207. It bounced meaningfully off its June lows. It is still about 38% below the peak.
Separately, Peter Thiel sold 2.0 million shares on March 2, 2026, at weighted average prices spanning roughly $141 to $147. Insider selling alone is rarely the whole story, but on a stock priced for perfection, it is a data point worth holding.
The Part People Skip
Valuation is the real fight here. At around $129–$130, Palantir trades at a very high multiple of revenue and earnings versus most software peers. The broader “software industry average P/E” figure cited here is not something I can verify as a single authoritative number (it varies widely by index, definition, and time period), so treat any specific comparison like that as directional, not definitive.
The bull case is that Palantir is not a software company in the traditional sense. Its AI Platform, known as AIP, is embedded in defense contracts, enterprise operations, and government infrastructure in ways that are difficult to replicate or replace. The USDA recently signed a blanket purchase agreement worth up to $300 million.
Some of the specific operational claims circulating about AIP deployments (for example, exact percentage performance improvements at GE Aerospace or the exact “200 hours to 15 seconds” ShipOS timing claim) are difficult to verify cleanly from primary, on-the-record sources in a way that meets newsletter-grade evidentiary standards, so I’m not presenting those as established facts here.
Slight tangent: Palantir is genuinely two different businesses inside one stock. Government revenue is durable, classified, and compounding. Commercial revenue is growing explosively but relies on selling AIP boot camps and deal cycles that could slow. What analysts are debating is not one quarter. They are debating what Palantir becomes by 2030.
Analyst forecasts suggest revenue could reach far higher levels by 2030 than it is today, but the exact figures vary significantly across analysts and sources—and I could not verify the specific “$38 billion by 2030” figure as a consensus number. That is the math the bulls are running.
Scorecard
- Revenue growth Q1: 85% year-over-year
- Full-year 2026 guidance: $7.650–$7.662 billion, ~71% growth
- U.S. commercial growth rate: 133%
- GAAP margin: 53%
- Free cash flow margin: 57%
- Cash and short-term investments: roughly $8 billion
- 52-week range: ~$106 to ~$207
- Stock vs. 52-week high: down roughly 38%
What I Am Watching
The next real signal is the next earnings report and whether results track the company’s Q2 guidance (revenue of $1.797–$1.801 billion; adjusted income from operations of $1.063–$1.067 billion). If the company delivers that and U.S. commercial deals keep compounding at triple-digit rates, the valuation argument shifts. If growth decelerates at all, the premium multiple faces serious pressure fast.
The core question is whether AIP is becoming genuinely embedded in enterprise workflows or whether it is still a pilot-project business dressed up in growth numbers. The answer takes more than one quarter to reveal.
The tension here is real. The business may have never been stronger. The stock may still be priced for a world where everything goes perfectly for five consecutive years. Both things can be true at the same time.
